Artificial intelligence will play an important role in national and international security in the years to come. As a result, the U.S. government is considering how to control the diffusion of AI-related information and technologies. Because general-purpose AI software, datasets, and algorithms are not effective targets for controls, the attention naturally falls on the computer hardware necessary to implement modern AI systems. The success of modern AI techniques relies on computation on a scale unimaginable even a few years ago. Training a leading AI algorithm can require a month of computing time and cost $100 million. This enormous computational power is delivered by computer chips that not only pack the maximum number of transistors— basic computational devices that can be switched between on (1) and off (0) states—but also are tailor-made to efficiently perform specific calculations required by AI systems. Such leading-edge, specialized “AI chips” are essential for cost-effectively implementing AI at scale; trying to deliver the same AI application using older AI chips or general-purpose chips can cost tens to thousands of times more. The fact that the complex supply chains needed to produce leading-edge AI chips are concentrated in the United States and a small number of allied democracies provides an opportunity for export control policies.

This report presents the above story in detail. It explains how AI chips work, why they have proliferated, and why they matter. It also shows why leading-edge chips are more cost-effective than older generations, and why chips specialized for AI are more cost-effective than general-purpose chips. As part of this story, the report surveys semiconductor industry and AI chip design Center for Security and Emerging Technology | 4 trends shaping the evolution of chips in general and AI chips in particular. It also presents a consolidated discussion of technical and economic trends that result in the critical cost-effectiveness tradeoffs for AI applications. In this paper, AI refers to cutting-edge computationally-intensive AI systems, such as deep neural networks. DNNs are responsible for most recent AI breakthroughs, like DeepMind’s AlphaGo, which beat the world champion Go player. As suggested above, we use “AI chips” to refer to certain types of computer chips that attain high efficiency and speed for AI-specific calculations at the expense of low efficiency and speed for other calculations.* This paper focuses on AI chips and why they are essential for the development and deployment of AI at scale. It does not focus on details of the supply chain for such AI chips or the best targets within the supply chain for export controls (CSET has published preliminary results on this topic1 ). Forthcoming CSET reports will analyze the semiconductor supply chain, national competitiveness, the prospects of China's semiconductor industry for supply chain localization, and policies the United States and its allies can pursue to maintain their advantages in the production of AI chips, recommending how this advantage can be utilized to ensure beneficial development and adoption of AI technologies.